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The International Space Station
The future of the ISS beyond 2015 remains very confusing for the public and space officials

The International Space Station, floating more than 200 miles above the Earth's surface, has been supported in the scientific community, but a lack of major scientific breakthroughs from space has made a growing number of people doubt the ISS and the nations supporting the mission.

A recent pairing of opinion blogs in the "Outlook & Opinions" in the Washington Post argue the actual benefit of the multi-billion ISS, and whether or not it's worth all of the trouble that NASA and others are going through to complete its construction.  Writer Michael Benson claims that the project is "going no where at a very high rate of speed," and continues by saying the ISS still has "virtually no purpose and is accomplishing nothing" as a scientific research platform.

A countering blog written by a former NASA contractor highlights the successes of the ISS, and why nations are willing to put so much time, effort and money into the project.

As even more money is being pumped into the ISS, there continues to be a growing discontent over the project that NASA hopes to complete before 2010.  Once the current shuttle is retired, there is an expected five-year gap until 2015, when NASA expects to roll out Orion.

The ISS has 15,000 cubic feet of livable space, 10 different modules, the ability to host five astronauts plus an extra one or two, and has fully-functioning research laboratories able to host a multitude of different experiments.  The project began in 1998, but suffered delays due to the shuttle Columbia disaster, and has suffered major budget issues over the past 10 years.

But with an estimated lifespan until 2015, the future of the ISS beyond that has remained very confusing amongst the five lead nations responsible for its construction.  Besides NASA and Russia, the European Space Agency, Japan and Canada have been responsible for providing financial support and hardware that has been used to create and add to the ISS.

Once completed in two years, the space station will have evolved into a $100-billion project that the five nations will be very unlikely to want to give up, and instead will be used until it's no longer feasible.  The head of the Russian Roskosmos space agency, Alexey Krasnov, said during the Multilateral Coordination Board last week his agency wants to add electrical-supply hardware and other technology aboard the ISS, and wants to keep it running as long as possible.

After launching habitable space modules to the ISS recently, both the ESA and JAXA said they intend to make use of their modules to help keep the ISS supported and operational.  NASA's Griffin said it is very unlikely NASA will turn its back on the ISS before 2016, but with the U.S. space agency's renewed interest in future missions to the moon and Mars, less money and supplies may be available for the ISS.

The five nations are actively talking about the financial and technical responsibilities that each nation will need to offer to help take care of the ISS until 2020 and beyond.  The U.S. Congress already said NASA should be prepared to support the ISS until 2020, and anything beyond that will be taken into consideration once the time comes.  Russia will have to take on an extra burden while helping transport NASA astronauts and cargo aboard its own rockets until NASA is able to complete the Aries-Orion shuttle in 2015.

Researchers also hope to be able to use the ISS as a working platform for possible manned mission to Mars, and as a proper stepping stone for supplies and astronauts on the way to the moon.  But Benson argues that stopping at the ISS on the way to Mars would be a waste of fuel and time to make a pit stop.

Despite the criticism, NASA, Russia and other space organizations continue in their effort to finish the space lab in the next two years.  Two cosmonauts working at the ISS recently installed a new docking target and also worked on several science experiments.

Regardless of whether or not journalists, the public, or space engineers approve of the ISS, developed space nations will continue to try and finish construction the next two years.  After the construction is completed, however, the five leading partners behind the ISS will continue to modify and fix the ISS until it is no longer economical to do so.



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Why it's important
By wordsworm on 7/23/2008 8:06:47 AM , Rating: 5
The number one reason to complete this project is that it's a stepping stone to greater projects, such as lunar landings, mining, etc. It's an exercise for many of the best engineers that the world can muster. Once it's finished, then the world of astro-faring nations can focus its collective attention on the next great lunar challenge.




RE: Why it's important
By JasonMick (blog) on 7/23/2008 8:14:52 AM , Rating: 3
Agreed.

Yea, the biggest problem is unrealistic expectations. The fact of the matter is that the ISS has accomplished a lot considering the state of spaceflight.

It'd be great to have more, but without a space elevator or some other exotic method of transporting people and materials into orbit cheaply, you could never get the really cool stuff, like a space colony, or space factories.

Of course these efforts remain a ways away, so for now we should give the ISS our all, I say.


RE: Why it's important
By jadeskye on 7/23/2008 8:20:41 AM , Rating: 2
I agree. I've always loved the ISS. The truth of it comes in that we've had people living in space since it's birth.

That alone is an achievement for mankind if you ask me. The depressing part seemed to be that it would be finished in time for it to crash into the ocean, i never saw the point.

Now that they're gonna try and maintain it beyond 2015, i'm pleased. maybe in the decade or so longer we hope to keep it we can start work on the space elevator or maybe forgo that and just go straight back to the moon.


RE: Why it's important
By wordsworm on 7/23/08, Rating: 0
RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 9:56:52 AM , Rating: 3
> "It'd be great to have more, but without a space elevator or some other exotic method of transporting people and materials into orbit cheaply, you could never get the really cool stuff, like a space colony"

All we need is a nuclear rocket. Chemical propulsion doesn't have a high enough specific impulse to get to orbit cheaply. That means massive amounts of fuel to lift microscopic payloads.

The tight fuel budget also means you have to boost at very high gees (which requires a very strong structure) and aerobraking when you need to land (which requires materials to handle ultra-high temperatures). That means spacecraft are terribly difficult to design. But with an efficient nuclear engine, boosting at 2G is possible, and, without aerobraking, there's no particular stresses from reentry. Hell, you could air-seal a school bus and make a spacecrat out of it.


RE: Why it's important
By rtrski on 7/23/2008 10:39:04 AM , Rating: 2
A boxy, flat-sided school bus isn't exactly the best shape for withstanding an internal pressure vs. external vacuum. I'm sure you could brace it as well as just "air seal" it, but it's still pretty inefficient compared to something with a cylindrical cross-section. Corners are bad.

I liked Varley's take on it...he invented a B.S. 'endless thrust' drive as the justifying technology for a (fun, but fairly lowbrow) SF book about a race to Mars and had a ragtag team convert an assembly of train tanker cars into a space vessel.

Can you point to any studies on nuclear rockets and weight-to-impulse ratios, e.g. the weight lost to shielding vs. the wait gained not carrying all the chemical fuel and oxidant? I'm honestly curious, not doubting your statement.


RE: Why it's important
By wordsworm on 7/23/2008 11:30:20 AM , Rating: 2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_thermal_rocke...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_pulse_propuls...

I was able to find these articles. My biggest beef with the idea, of course, is the potential for an accident. Nuclear catastrophes, such as a high altitude explosion, could lead to a wide dispersal of radioactive material. If he's talking about nuclear pulse propulsion, then you have to take into account that it could conceivably kill 1-10 people every time it was launched due to radiation hormesis.

Anyways, I'm still more into the concept of a magnetic launch. http://www.launchpnt.com/Space_Launch.32.0.html If something like that was created, there would be no need for nuclear disasters, or even chemical disasters. Launch a series of modules to include some solar powered ion thruster, robotics to build a mining base, refinery, etc, and voila: lunar base. It would be so much better than playing with those nasty nuclear reactors.


RE: Why it's important
By NullSubroutine on 7/23/2008 1:39:24 PM , Rating: 2
I think the varying space elevator is a far more efficient for getting things into space. If you can get that into space, you could just start making ships or whatever in space off a manufacturing platform built on an asteroid or moon.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:41:07 PM , Rating: 2
> "I think the varying space elevator is a far more efficient for getting things into space."

Oh sure. Only problem is we don't have anywhere near the technology to build it yet.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:29:20 PM , Rating: 3
> "My biggest beef with the idea, of course, is the potential for an accident. "

Do you realize we've *already* had multiple accidents with rockets carrying nuclear materials -- Apollo 13 is the most well-known example. The unused lunar lander was carried back to Earth, where it and its nuclear cargo (a few kg of plutonium inside a SNAP-27 RTG) entered the atmosphere in uncontrolled descent. The lander burned up, but the SNAP module survived reentry, and landed harmlessly in the ocean.

Nuclear reactors can be built with incredibly strong shielding packages. Surviving even the most catastrophic of launch failures isn't that difficult, even with 1960s technology. With current materials, its a piece of cake.

> "Anyways, I'm still more into the concept of a magnetic launch"

A great idea for bulk materials that can withstand the g forces. But wholly impossible for ever launching humans into space.


RE: Why it's important
By Ringold on 7/23/2008 12:12:57 PM , Rating: 5
quote:
A boxy, flat-sided school bus isn't exactly the best shape for withstanding an internal pressure vs. external vacuum.


It worked in Space Balls.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:40:34 PM , Rating: 3
> "Can you point to any studies on nuclear rockets and weight-to-impulse ratios..."

Chemical rockets run about 250-450 seconds of specific impulse. The crudest nuclear rocket would generate about 850 seconds, all the way up to 5000+ seconds for advanced designs.

That may not sound like a huge difference...but one look at the ideal rocket equation proves otherwise. An increase of 10X in specific impulse can mean 100X the lifting power.

> "A boxy, flat-sided school bus isn't exactly the best shape for withstanding an internal pressure vs. external vacuum"

Of course; the statement was intended to prove a point, not as a serious proposal.


RE: Why it's important
By Janooo on 7/23/2008 6:10:46 PM , Rating: 2
Complete BS. You wouldn't have enough fuel to reach Ve (escape velocity) at 2G.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:50:14 PM , Rating: 2
> "Complete BS. You wouldn't have enough fuel to reach Ve (escape velocity) at 2G."

With a propulsion system with an Isp of 3000 seconds or more, you must assuredly would. You do the math. The equation you want is:

Delta v = (g*Isp) ln (m0/m1) - (g*t)

delta v for an LEO launch is 7.8 km/s, g is the acceleration due to gravity, Isp is the specific impulse of the engine, m0 is initial mass (payload+reaction mass), m1 is final mass (payload), and t is the boost time.


RE: Why it's important
By Janooo on 7/23/2008 11:14:46 PM , Rating: 1
The size of a tank for 3000s is unrealistic. That's your problem.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/24/2008 9:14:04 AM , Rating: 2
Eh? You don't understand the concept of specific impulse. It has nothing to do with "tank size".

Isp is a metric that measures the efficiency of your reaction mass, roughly equivalent to its exit velocity. Rockets function by throwing reaction mass out the rear, using Newton's third law. The higher the exit velocity, the less mass is required to impart a specific change in velocity.